Target Price Playground
TEL
$229.78
๐ข
TEL IV: 40.8% โ LOW
(-29.0% vs 30d avg of 57.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $229.78 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $250 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.7 ยท ฮ 0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TEL hits $250 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,692 (12.1%) on $22,308 risked, vs +$2,022 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $22,978. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TEL is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TEL hits $250 by Jun 19
+$2,692
+12.1% on $22,308 risked
Max Profit
+$2,692
If the stock โฅ $250 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$22,308
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$223.08
-2.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.78 / 10.66 / -36.1
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TEL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $184 (-20%) | -$3,966 | -$3,936 | -$3,926 | -$3,926 |
| $195 (-15%) | -$2,881 | -$2,814 | -$2,780 | -$2,777 |
| $207 (-10%) | -$1,858 | -$1,735 | -$1,646 | -$1,628 |
| $218 (-5%) | -$926 | -$735 | -$555 | -$479 |
| $225 (-2%) | -$421 | -$190 | +$55 | +$210 |
| $230 (0%) โ spot | -$109 | +$146 | +$434 | +$670 |
| $234 (+2%) | +$181 | +$457 | +$785 | +$1,130 |
| $241 (+5%) | +$575 | +$876 | +$1,250 | +$1,819 |
| $250 (+9%) โ target | +$1,004 | +$1,322 | +$1,726 | +$2,692 |
| $253 (+10%) | +$1,124 | +$1,444 | +$1,849 | +$2,692 |
| $264 (+15%) | +$1,546 | +$1,856 | +$2,232 | +$2,692 |
| $276 (+20%) | +$1,856 | +$2,137 | +$2,446 | +$2,692 |
Uses TEL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.