Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TENB hits $17 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$120 (8.7%) on $-120 credit (max loss $1,380), vs +$96 (6.0%) for 100 shares on $1,604. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TENB is at $17. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TENB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $13 (-20%) | -$150 | -$132 | -$111 | -$97 |
| $14 (-15%) | -$101 | -$78 | -$50 | -$17 |
| $14 (-10%) | -$57 | -$32 | +$1 | +$64 |
| $15 (-5%) | -$21 | +$5 | +$40 | +$120 |
| $16 (-2%) | -$3 | +$24 | +$58 | +$120 |
| $16 (0%) โ spot | +$9 | +$35 | +$69 | +$120 |
| $16 (+2%) | +$19 | +$45 | +$78 | +$120 |
| $17 (+6%) โ target | +$37 | +$62 | +$92 | +$120 |
| $18 (+10%) | +$53 | +$76 | +$101 | +$120 |
| $18 (+15%) | +$69 | +$89 | +$110 | +$120 |
| $19 (+20%) | +$81 | +$98 | +$114 | +$120 |