Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TER hits $385 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$3,200 (10.4%) on $-3,200 credit (max loss $30,800), vs +$1,701 (4.6%) for 100 shares on $36,799. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TER is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TER Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $294 (-20%) | -$3,067 | -$2,544 | -$1,920 | -$1,361 |
| $313 (-15%) | -$1,999 | -$1,395 | -$621 | +$479 |
| $331 (-10%) | -$1,075 | -$418 | +$450 | +$2,319 |
| $350 (-5%) | -$287 | +$393 | +$1,290 | +$3,200 |
| $361 (-2%) | +$126 | +$806 | +$1,691 | +$3,200 |
| $368 (0%) โ spot | +$377 | +$1,052 | +$1,918 | +$3,200 |
| $375 (+2%) | +$611 | +$1,277 | +$2,117 | +$3,200 |
| $385 (+5%) โ target | +$892 | +$1,541 | +$2,338 | +$3,200 |
| $405 (+10%) | +$1,385 | +$1,987 | +$2,674 | +$3,200 |
| $423 (+15%) | +$1,756 | +$2,303 | +$2,877 | +$3,200 |
| $442 (+20%) | +$2,057 | +$2,542 | +$3,007 | +$3,200 |