Target Price Playground
TMUS
$195.71
๐ข
TMUS IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-49.7% vs 30d avg of 54.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $220 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $195 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.7 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $210 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.0 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $220 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$830 (123.9%) on $670 risked, vs +$2,429 (12.4%) for 100 shares on $19,571. Options give 10.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $220 by Jun 19
+$830
+123.9% on $670 risked
Max Profit
+$830
If the stock โฅ $210 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$670
Net debit
Break-even
$201.70
+3.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
22.55 / -1.23 / 2.38
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157 (-20%) | -$632 | -$657 | -$669 | -$670 |
| $166 (-15%) | -$569 | -$617 | -$660 | -$670 |
| $176 (-10%) | -$454 | -$521 | -$611 | -$670 |
| $186 (-5%) | -$285 | -$347 | -$459 | -$670 |
| $192 (-2%) | -$164 | -$209 | -$300 | -$670 |
| $196 (0%) โ spot | -$78 | -$107 | -$170 | -$599 |
| $200 (+2%) | +$10 | -$2 | -$28 | -$208 |
| $206 (+5%) | +$140 | +$157 | +$189 | +$380 |
| $215 (+10%) | +$340 | +$394 | +$498 | +$830 |
| $220 (+12%) โ target | +$424 | +$489 | +$606 | +$830 |
| $225 (+15%) | +$503 | +$575 | +$690 | +$830 |
| $235 (+20%) | +$624 | +$693 | +$780 | +$830 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.