Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $205 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$480 (2.7%) on $-480 credit (max loss $17,520), vs +$929 (4.7%) for 100 shares on $19,571. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157 (-20%) | -$1,893 | -$1,852 | -$1,831 | -$1,863 |
| $166 (-15%) | -$1,151 | -$1,054 | -$944 | -$885 |
| $176 (-10%) | -$563 | -$427 | -$244 | +$94 |
| $186 (-5%) | -$141 | +$2 | +$188 | +$480 |
| $192 (-2%) | +$42 | +$172 | +$330 | +$480 |
| $196 (0%) โ spot | +$137 | +$256 | +$389 | +$480 |
| $200 (+2%) | +$215 | +$319 | +$426 | +$480 |
| $205 (+5%) โ target | +$297 | +$381 | +$456 | +$480 |
| $215 (+10%) | +$394 | +$445 | +$476 | +$480 |
| $225 (+15%) | +$441 | +$468 | +$479 | +$480 |
| $235 (+20%) | +$463 | +$476 | +$480 | +$480 |