Target Price Playground
TMUS
$195.71
๐ข
TMUS IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-49.7% vs 30d avg of 54.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $210 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $195.71 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $210 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $5.0 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $210 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$1,929 (10.1%) on $19,071 risked, vs +$1,429 (7.3%) for 100 shares on $19,571. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $210. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $210 by Jun 19
+$1,929
+10.1% on $19,071 risked
Max Profit
+$1,929
If the stock โฅ $210 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$19,071
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$190.71
-2.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.11 / 7.17 / -30.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157 (-20%) | -$3,426 | -$3,416 | -$3,414 | -$3,414 |
| $166 (-15%) | -$2,477 | -$2,448 | -$2,437 | -$2,436 |
| $176 (-10%) | -$1,573 | -$1,505 | -$1,463 | -$1,457 |
| $186 (-5%) | -$749 | -$626 | -$517 | -$479 |
| $192 (-2%) | -$306 | -$148 | +$15 | +$109 |
| $196 (0%) โ spot | -$37 | +$142 | +$342 | +$500 |
| $200 (+2%) | +$210 | +$407 | +$640 | +$891 |
| $206 (+5%) | +$539 | +$755 | +$1,025 | +$1,479 |
| $210 (+7%) โ target | +$756 | +$979 | +$1,261 | +$1,929 |
| $215 (+10%) | +$973 | +$1,197 | +$1,476 | +$1,929 |
| $225 (+15%) | +$1,279 | +$1,484 | +$1,717 | +$1,929 |
| $235 (+20%) | +$1,480 | +$1,651 | +$1,821 | +$1,929 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.