Target Price Playground
TMUS
$195.71
๐ข
TMUS IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-49.7% vs 30d avg of 54.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $195 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.56 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $185 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.3 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $185 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$782 (183.7%) on $426 risked, vs $-1,071 (-5.5%) for 100 shares on $19,571. Options give 33.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $185 by Jun 19
+$782
+183.7% on $426 risked
Max Profit
+$753
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$425
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$199.73
+2.06% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.98 / 2.24 / 11.34
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157 (-20%) | +$492 | +$512 | +$520 | +$509 |
| $166 (-15%) | +$456 | +$495 | +$535 | +$526 |
| $176 (-10%) | +$384 | +$433 | +$509 | +$600 |
| $185 (-5%) โ target | +$286 | +$329 | +$405 | +$782 |
| $192 (-2%) | +$195 | +$223 | +$270 | +$356 |
| $196 (0%) โ spot | +$140 | +$156 | +$180 | +$161 |
| $200 (+2%) | +$84 | +$88 | +$88 | +$3 |
| $206 (+5%) | +$1 | -$11 | -$43 | -$171 |
| $215 (+10%) | -$123 | -$156 | -$217 | -$333 |
| $225 (+15%) | -$224 | -$265 | -$325 | -$397 |
| $235 (+20%) | -$298 | -$337 | -$381 | -$418 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.