Target Price Playground
TMUS
$195.71
๐ข
TMUS IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-49.7% vs 30d avg of 54.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $170 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $195 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.45 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $170 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,455 (139.2%) on $1,045 risked, vs $-2,571 (-13.1%) for 100 shares on $19,571. Options give 10.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $170. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $170 by Jun 19
+$1,455
+139.2% on $1,045 risked
Max Profit
+$18,455
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,045
Premium paid
Break-even
$184.55
-5.7% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.77 / -7.75 / 32.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157 (-20%) | +$2,687 | +$2,706 | +$2,744 | +$2,798 |
| $166 (-15%) | +$1,802 | +$1,777 | +$1,775 | +$1,820 |
| $170 (-13%) โ target | +$1,494 | +$1,448 | +$1,421 | +$1,455 |
| $176 (-10%) | +$1,013 | +$930 | +$850 | +$841 |
| $186 (-5%) | +$357 | +$225 | +$57 | -$137 |
| $192 (-2%) | +$36 | -$115 | -$316 | -$725 |
| $196 (0%) โ spot | -$148 | -$303 | -$513 | -$1,045 |
| $200 (+2%) | -$307 | -$463 | -$669 | -$1,045 |
| $206 (+5%) | -$505 | -$653 | -$837 | -$1,045 |
| $215 (+10%) | -$740 | -$857 | -$979 | -$1,045 |
| $225 (+15%) | -$882 | -$963 | -$1,028 | -$1,045 |
| $235 (+20%) | -$963 | -$1,012 | -$1,041 | -$1,045 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.