Target Price Playground
TMUS
$195.71
๐ข
TMUS IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-49.7% vs 30d avg of 54.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $215 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $195.71 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $185 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $6.3 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $215 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,299 (6.4%) on $20,201 risked, vs +$1,929 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $19,571. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $215 by Jun 19
+$1,299
+6.4% on $20,201 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,701
Put floors you at $185
Break-even
$202.01
+3.22% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.99 / -7.34 / 27.88
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157 (-20%) | -$1,734 | -$1,752 | -$1,746 | -$1,701 |
| $166 (-15%) | -$1,557 | -$1,631 | -$1,700 | -$1,701 |
| $176 (-10%) | -$1,242 | -$1,367 | -$1,524 | -$1,701 |
| $186 (-5%) | -$768 | -$916 | -$1,115 | -$1,609 |
| $192 (-2%) | -$408 | -$553 | -$742 | -$1,021 |
| $196 (0%) โ spot | -$140 | -$278 | -$448 | -$630 |
| $200 (+2%) | +$149 | +$22 | -$125 | -$239 |
| $206 (+5%) | +$616 | +$509 | +$401 | +$349 |
| $215 (+10%) โ target | +$1,438 | +$1,367 | +$1,312 | +$1,299 |
| $225 (+15%) | +$2,372 | +$2,331 | +$2,308 | +$2,306 |
| $235 (+20%) | +$3,314 | +$3,292 | +$3,284 | +$3,284 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.