Target Price Playground
TMUS
$195.71
๐ข
TMUS IV: 27.5% โ LOW
(-49.7% vs 30d avg of 54.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $225 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $195 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.7 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $195 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.45 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TMUS hits $225 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$785 (35.4%) on $2,215 risked, vs +$2,929 (15.0%) for 100 shares on $19,571. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TMUS is at $225. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TMUS hits $225 by Jun 19
+$785
+35.4% on $2,215 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,215
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$217.15
+10.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
10.67 / -16.16 / 65.72
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TMUS Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $157 (-20%) | +$1,567 | +$1,551 | +$1,575 | +$1,628 |
| $166 (-15%) | +$774 | +$671 | +$615 | +$650 |
| $176 (-10%) | +$175 | -$43 | -$255 | -$329 |
| $186 (-5%) | -$158 | -$476 | -$864 | -$1,307 |
| $192 (-2%) | -$213 | -$567 | -$1,022 | -$1,895 |
| $196 (0%) โ spot | -$189 | -$553 | -$1,025 | -$2,144 |
| $200 (+2%) | -$117 | -$481 | -$947 | -$1,753 |
| $206 (+5%) | +$75 | -$272 | -$693 | -$1,165 |
| $215 (+10%) | +$584 | +$297 | -$0 | -$187 |
| $225 (+15%) โ target | +$1,273 | +$1,058 | +$874 | +$785 |
| $235 (+20%) | +$2,095 | +$1,943 | +$1,832 | +$1,770 |
Uses TMUS's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.