Target Price Playground
TRMB
$64.77
๐ข
TRMB IV: 37.8% โ LOW
(-30.1% vs 30d avg of 54.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $57 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $65 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.25 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $60 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.11 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TRMB hits $57 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$286 (133.5%) on $214 risked, vs $-777 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $6,477. Options give 11.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRMB is at $57. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TRMB hits $57 by Jun 19
+$286
+133.5% on $214 risked
Max Profit
+$286
If the stock โค $60 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$214
Net debit
Break-even
$62.86
-2.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-17.45 / -0.33 / 1.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TRMB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $52 (-20%) | +$217 | +$239 | +$268 | +$286 |
| $55 (-15%) | +$173 | +$195 | +$232 | +$286 |
| $57 (-12%) โ target | +$141 | +$159 | +$195 | +$286 |
| $58 (-10%) | +$118 | +$133 | +$163 | +$286 |
| $62 (-5%) | +$59 | +$62 | +$69 | +$133 |
| $63 (-2%) | +$23 | +$19 | +$9 | -$61 |
| $65 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$9 | -$29 | -$191 |
| $66 (+2%) | -$22 | -$36 | -$64 | -$214 |
| $68 (+5%) | -$53 | -$72 | -$109 | -$214 |
| $71 (+10%) | -$98 | -$122 | -$162 | -$214 |
| $74 (+15%) | -$133 | -$158 | -$191 | -$214 |
| $78 (+20%) | -$160 | -$181 | -$205 | -$214 |
Uses TRMB's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.