Target Price Playground
TRMB
$64.77
๐ข
TRMB IV: 37.8% โ LOW
(-30.1% vs 30d avg of 54.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $73 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $65 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.56 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $70 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.61 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TRMB hits $73 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$306 (157.5%) on $194 risked, vs +$823 (12.7%) for 100 shares on $6,477. Options give 12.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRMB is at $73. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TRMB hits $73 by Jun 19
+$306
+157.5% on $194 risked
Max Profit
+$306
If the stock โฅ $70 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$194
Net debit
Break-even
$66.94
+3.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
17.07 / -0.26 / 0.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TRMB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $52 (-20%) | -$166 | -$181 | -$193 | -$195 |
| $55 (-15%) | -$140 | -$160 | -$184 | -$195 |
| $58 (-10%) | -$102 | -$124 | -$158 | -$195 |
| $62 (-5%) | -$55 | -$72 | -$106 | -$195 |
| $63 (-2%) | -$23 | -$35 | -$62 | -$195 |
| $65 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$9 | -$27 | -$195 |
| $66 (+2%) | +$21 | +$18 | +$9 | -$88 |
| $68 (+5%) | +$55 | +$58 | +$65 | +$106 |
| $71 (+10%) | +$107 | +$122 | +$151 | +$305 |
| $73 (+13%) โ target | +$133 | +$153 | +$190 | +$305 |
| $74 (+15%) | +$154 | +$177 | +$217 | +$305 |
| $78 (+20%) | +$193 | +$219 | +$260 | +$305 |
Uses TRMB's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.