Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TRMB hits $68 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$211 (3.6%) on $-211 credit (max loss $5,789), vs +$323 (5.0%) for 100 shares on $6,477. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRMB is at $68. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TRMB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $52 (-20%) | -$670 | -$638 | -$609 | -$607 |
| $55 (-15%) | -$442 | -$392 | -$332 | -$284 |
| $58 (-10%) | -$254 | -$192 | -$110 | +$40 |
| $62 (-5%) | -$108 | -$42 | +$44 | +$211 |
| $63 (-2%) | -$39 | +$24 | +$105 | +$211 |
| $65 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$61 | +$135 | +$211 |
| $66 (+2%) | +$34 | +$91 | +$158 | +$211 |
| $68 (+5%) โ target | +$76 | +$127 | +$181 | +$211 |
| $71 (+10%) | +$128 | +$166 | +$200 | +$211 |
| $74 (+15%) | +$161 | +$188 | +$208 | +$211 |
| $78 (+20%) | +$182 | +$200 | +$210 | +$211 |