Target Price Playground
TRMB
$64.77
๐ข
TRMB IV: 37.8% โ LOW
(-30.1% vs 30d avg of 54.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $62 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $65 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.77 ยท ฮ -0.47
SHORT PUT ยท $62 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.86 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TRMB hits $62 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$241 (126.2%) on $191 risked, vs $-277 (-4.3%) for 100 shares on $6,477. Options give 29.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRMB is at $62. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TRMB hits $62 by Jun 19
+$241
+126.2% on $191 risked
Max Profit
+$236
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$189
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$66.83
+3.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.02 / 0.36 / 2.89
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TRMB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $52 (-20%) | +$92 | +$100 | +$104 | +$92 |
| $55 (-15%) | +$85 | +$99 | +$115 | +$107 |
| $58 (-10%) | +$71 | +$88 | +$116 | +$148 |
| $62 (-4%) โ target | +$45 | +$61 | +$90 | +$249 |
| $63 (-2%) | +$32 | +$46 | +$72 | +$162 |
| $65 (0%) โ spot | +$20 | +$32 | +$52 | +$95 |
| $66 (+2%) | +$8 | +$16 | +$31 | +$37 |
| $68 (+5%) | -$12 | -$8 | -$4 | -$32 |
| $71 (+10%) | -$44 | -$48 | -$60 | -$110 |
| $74 (+15%) | -$75 | -$85 | -$106 | -$153 |
| $78 (+20%) | -$102 | -$116 | -$139 | -$175 |
Uses TRMB's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.