Target Price Playground
TRMB
$64.77
๐ข
TRMB IV: 37.8% โ LOW
(-30.1% vs 30d avg of 54.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $71 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $64.77 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $62 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.86 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TRMB hits $71 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$337 (5.0%) on $6,763 risked, vs +$623 (9.6%) for 100 shares on $6,477. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRMB is at $71. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TRMB hits $71 by Jun 19
+$337
+5.0% on $6,763 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$563
Put floors you at $62
Break-even
$67.63
+4.41% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.15 / -2.74 / 10.26
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TRMB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $52 (-20%) | -$534 | -$557 | -$572 | -$563 |
| $55 (-15%) | -$459 | -$501 | -$545 | -$563 |
| $58 (-10%) | -$346 | -$404 | -$477 | -$563 |
| $62 (-5%) | -$193 | -$260 | -$349 | -$563 |
| $63 (-2%) | -$82 | -$150 | -$240 | -$416 |
| $65 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$67 | -$154 | -$286 |
| $66 (+2%) | +$87 | +$22 | -$59 | -$156 |
| $68 (+5%) | +$227 | +$167 | +$97 | +$38 |
| $71 (+10%) โ target | +$463 | +$413 | +$362 | +$337 |
| $74 (+15%) | +$762 | +$725 | +$694 | +$686 |
| $78 (+20%) | +$1,055 | +$1,029 | +$1,012 | +$1,009 |
Uses TRMB's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.