Target Price Playground
TRMB
$64.77
๐ข
TRMB IV: 37.8% โ LOW
(-30.1% vs 30d avg of 54.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $74 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $65 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.56 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $65 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $4.25 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TRMB hits $74 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$19 (2.2%) on $881 risked, vs +$923 (14.3%) for 100 shares on $6,477. Options give 0.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRMB is at $74. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TRMB hits $74 by Jun 19
+$19
+2.2% on $881 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$881
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$56.19
-13.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.0 / -6.51 / 22.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TRMB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $52 (-20%) | +$478 | +$441 | +$424 | +$437 |
| $55 (-15%) | +$256 | +$182 | +$121 | +$114 |
| $58 (-10%) | +$96 | -$16 | -$137 | -$210 |
| $62 (-5%) | +$9 | -$133 | -$310 | -$534 |
| $63 (-2%) | -$6 | -$160 | -$357 | -$728 |
| $65 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$158 | -$363 | -$858 |
| $66 (+2%) | +$17 | -$142 | -$349 | -$774 |
| $68 (+5%) | +$65 | -$92 | -$291 | -$580 |
| $71 (+10%) | +$197 | +$54 | -$112 | -$256 |
| $74 (+14%) โ target | +$352 | +$227 | +$97 | +$19 |
| $78 (+20%) | +$612 | +$514 | +$429 | +$391 |
Uses TRMB's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.