Target Price Playground
TRMB
$64.77
๐ข
TRMB IV: 37.8% โ LOW
(-30.1% vs 30d avg of 54.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $70 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $64.77 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $70 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.61 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TRMB hits $70 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$784 (12.6%) on $6,216 risked, vs +$523 (8.1%) for 100 shares on $6,477. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRMB is at $70. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TRMB hits $70 by Jun 19
+$784
+12.6% on $6,216 risked
Max Profit
+$784
If the stock โฅ $70 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$6,216
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$62.16
-4.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.57 / 3.4 / -10.52
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TRMB Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $52 (-20%) | -$1,052 | -$1,039 | -$1,034 | -$1,034 |
| $55 (-15%) | -$753 | -$728 | -$713 | -$711 |
| $58 (-10%) | -$474 | -$430 | -$396 | -$387 |
| $62 (-5%) | -$221 | -$158 | -$96 | -$63 |
| $63 (-2%) | -$85 | -$11 | +$70 | +$131 |
| $65 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$79 | +$172 | +$261 |
| $66 (+2%) | +$78 | +$163 | +$266 | +$391 |
| $68 (+5%) | +$184 | +$276 | +$390 | +$585 |
| $70 (+8%) โ target | +$280 | +$375 | +$495 | +$784 |
| $71 (+10%) | +$333 | +$428 | +$549 | +$784 |
| $74 (+15%) | +$449 | +$541 | +$652 | +$784 |
| $78 (+20%) | +$535 | +$619 | +$711 | +$784 |
Uses TRMB's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.