Target Price Playground
TSLA
$348.95
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.3% โ LOW
(-19.7% vs 30d avg of 61.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $305 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $27.58 ยท ฮ -0.48
SHORT PUT ยท $320 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.8 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $305 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,722 (134.7%) on $1,278 risked, vs $-4,395 (-12.6%) for 100 shares on $34,895. Options give 10.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $305. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $305 by Jun 19
+$1,722
+134.7% on $1,278 risked
Max Profit
+$1,722
If the stock โค $320 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,278
Net debit
Break-even
$337.22
-3.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-17.59 / -0.89 / 9.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | +$1,164 | +$1,294 | +$1,503 | +$1,722 |
| $297 (-15%) | +$915 | +$1,025 | +$1,235 | +$1,722 |
| $305 (-13%) โ target | +$784 | +$873 | +$1,058 | +$1,722 |
| $314 (-10%) | +$636 | +$699 | +$837 | +$1,722 |
| $332 (-5%) | +$345 | +$347 | +$359 | +$572 |
| $342 (-2%) | +$173 | +$137 | +$67 | -$475 |
| $349 (0%) โ spot | +$61 | +$1 | -$118 | -$1,173 |
| $356 (+2%) | -$48 | -$129 | -$292 | -$1,278 |
| $366 (+5%) | -$202 | -$312 | -$526 | -$1,278 |
| $384 (+10%) | -$434 | -$576 | -$829 | -$1,278 |
| $401 (+15%) | -$630 | -$786 | -$1,030 | -$1,278 |
| $419 (+20%) | -$791 | -$944 | -$1,151 | -$1,278 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.