Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $365 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,480 (4.8%) on $-1,480 credit (max loss $30,520), vs +$1,605 (4.6%) for 100 shares on $34,895. Options give 1.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $365. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | -$3,395 | -$3,101 | -$2,780 | -$2,604 |
| $297 (-15%) | -$2,281 | -$1,902 | -$1,426 | -$859 |
| $314 (-10%) | -$1,356 | -$925 | -$353 | +$886 |
| $332 (-5%) | -$611 | -$169 | +$413 | +$1,480 |
| $342 (-2%) | -$245 | +$188 | +$739 | +$1,480 |
| $349 (0%) โ spot | -$31 | +$389 | +$907 | +$1,480 |
| $356 (+2%) | +$161 | +$564 | +$1,043 | +$1,480 |
| $365 (+5%) โ target | +$379 | +$755 | +$1,178 | +$1,480 |
| $384 (+10%) | +$734 | +$1,046 | +$1,349 | +$1,480 |
| $401 (+15%) | +$968 | +$1,218 | +$1,423 | +$1,480 |
| $419 (+20%) | +$1,134 | +$1,325 | +$1,457 | +$1,480 |