Target Price Playground
TSLA
$348.95
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.3% โ LOW
(-19.7% vs 30d avg of 61.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $375 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $348.95 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $375 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.95 ยท ฮ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $375 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,200 (12.6%) on $33,300 risked, vs +$2,605 (7.5%) for 100 shares on $34,895. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $375. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $375 by Jun 19
+$4,200
+12.6% on $33,300 risked
Max Profit
+$4,200
If the stock โฅ $375 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$33,300
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$333.00
-4.57% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
61.81 / 19.66 / -54.6
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | -$5,661 | -$5,495 | -$5,397 | -$5,384 |
| $297 (-15%) | -$4,154 | -$3,892 | -$3,689 | -$3,639 |
| $314 (-10%) | -$2,767 | -$2,400 | -$2,049 | -$1,894 |
| $332 (-5%) | -$1,525 | -$1,056 | -$536 | -$150 |
| $342 (-2%) | -$853 | -$332 | +$283 | +$897 |
| $349 (0%) โ spot | -$437 | +$114 | +$783 | +$1,595 |
| $356 (+2%) | -$47 | +$528 | +$1,244 | +$2,293 |
| $366 (+5%) | +$490 | +$1,092 | +$1,858 | +$3,340 |
| $375 (+7%) โ target | +$889 | +$1,504 | +$2,291 | +$4,200 |
| $384 (+10%) | +$1,261 | +$1,882 | +$2,670 | +$4,200 |
| $401 (+15%) | +$1,888 | +$2,495 | +$3,239 | +$4,200 |
| $419 (+20%) | +$2,387 | +$2,956 | +$3,610 | +$4,200 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.