Target Price Playground
TSLA
$348.95
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.3% โ LOW
(-19.7% vs 30d avg of 61.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $348.95 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $330 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.3 ยท ฮ -0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $385 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,775 (4.8%) on $36,725 risked, vs +$3,605 (10.3%) for 100 shares on $34,895. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $385 by Jun 19
+$1,775
+4.8% on $36,725 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,725
Put floors you at $330
Break-even
$367.25
+5.24% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.99 / -17.08 / 57.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $279 (-20%) | -$3,158 | -$3,409 | -$3,655 | -$3,725 |
| $297 (-15%) | -$2,618 | -$2,967 | -$3,381 | -$3,725 |
| $314 (-10%) | -$1,898 | -$2,318 | -$2,864 | -$3,725 |
| $332 (-5%) | -$998 | -$1,453 | -$2,057 | -$3,575 |
| $342 (-2%) | -$375 | -$832 | -$1,432 | -$2,528 |
| $349 (0%) โ spot | +$72 | -$379 | -$961 | -$1,830 |
| $356 (+2%) | +$543 | +$103 | -$451 | -$1,132 |
| $366 (+5%) | +$1,293 | +$875 | +$377 | -$85 |
| $385 (+10%) โ target | +$2,733 | +$2,373 | +$1,993 | +$1,775 |
| $401 (+15%) | +$4,091 | +$3,789 | +$3,510 | +$3,404 |
| $419 (+20%) | +$5,624 | +$5,384 | +$5,195 | +$5,149 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.