Target Price Playground
TSM
$370.60
๐ข
TSM IV: 46.3% โ LOW
(-25.4% vs 30d avg of 62.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $415 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $30.4 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $400 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.4 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSM hits $415 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$1,800 (150.0%) on $1,200 risked, vs +$4,440 (12.0%) for 100 shares on $37,060. Options give 12.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSM is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSM hits $415 by Jun 19
+$1,800
+150.0% on $1,200 risked
Max Profit
+$1,800
If the stock โฅ $400 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,200
Net debit
Break-even
$382.00
+3.08% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
16.26 / -0.89 / 4.99
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | -$943 | -$1,048 | -$1,162 | -$1,200 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$770 | -$894 | -$1,074 | -$1,200 |
| $334 (-10%) | -$547 | -$666 | -$880 | -$1,200 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$286 | -$372 | -$554 | -$1,200 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$117 | -$172 | -$301 | -$1,200 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | -$2 | -$34 | -$117 | -$1,140 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$113 | +$106 | +$75 | -$399 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$285 | +$315 | +$366 | +$713 |
| $408 (+10%) | +$559 | +$647 | +$817 | +$1,800 |
| $415 (+12%) โ target | +$661 | +$768 | +$973 | +$1,800 |
| $426 (+15%) | +$807 | +$939 | +$1,181 | +$1,800 |
| $445 (+20%) | +$1,023 | +$1,179 | +$1,439 | +$1,800 |
Uses TSM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.