Target Price Playground
TSM
$370.60
๐ข
TSM IV: 46.0% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 62.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.78 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $340 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.05 ยท ฮ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSM hits $325 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,827 (155.8%) on $1,173 risked, vs $-4,560 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $37,060. Options give 12.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSM is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSM hits $325 by Jun 19
+$1,827
+155.8% on $1,173 risked
Max Profit
+$1,827
If the stock โค $340 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,173
Net debit
Break-even
$358.27
-3.33% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-16.23 / -2.39 / 10.84
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | +$1,298 | +$1,431 | +$1,636 | +$1,827 |
| $315 (-15%) | +$1,038 | +$1,153 | +$1,370 | +$1,827 |
| $325 (-12%) โ target | +$881 | +$974 | +$1,161 | +$1,827 |
| $334 (-10%) | +$741 | +$809 | +$953 | +$1,827 |
| $352 (-5%) | +$430 | +$432 | +$442 | +$620 |
| $363 (-2%) | +$245 | +$207 | +$131 | -$492 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | +$126 | +$63 | -$65 | -$1,173 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$11 | -$75 | -$248 | -$1,173 |
| $389 (+5%) | -$151 | -$266 | -$488 | -$1,173 |
| $408 (+10%) | -$392 | -$537 | -$788 | -$1,173 |
| $426 (+15%) | -$592 | -$746 | -$976 | -$1,173 |
| $445 (+20%) | -$750 | -$897 | -$1,080 | -$1,173 |
Uses TSM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.