Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSM hits $390 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,405 (4.3%) on $-1,405 credit (max loss $32,595), vs +$1,940 (5.2%) for 100 shares on $37,060. Options give 0.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSM is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | -$3,642 | -$3,368 | -$3,078 | -$2,947 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$2,432 | -$2,064 | -$1,605 | -$1,094 |
| $334 (-10%) | -$1,433 | -$1,008 | -$444 | +$759 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$640 | -$203 | +$371 | +$1,405 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$255 | +$170 | +$708 | +$1,405 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | -$32 | +$377 | +$879 | +$1,405 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$165 | +$555 | +$1,014 | +$1,405 |
| $390 (+5%) โ target | +$435 | +$788 | +$1,170 | +$1,405 |
| $408 (+10%) | +$741 | +$1,031 | +$1,301 | +$1,405 |
| $426 (+15%) | +$967 | +$1,190 | +$1,364 | +$1,405 |
| $445 (+20%) | +$1,121 | +$1,286 | +$1,390 | +$1,405 |