Target Price Playground
TSM
$370.60
๐ข
TSM IV: 46.3% โ LOW
(-25.4% vs 30d avg of 62.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $31.2 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.5 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSM hits $350 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,473 (107.5%) on $1,370 risked, vs $-2,060 (-5.6%) for 100 shares on $37,060. Options give 19.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSM is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSM hits $350 by Jun 19
+$1,473
+107.5% on $1,370 risked
Max Profit
+$1,416
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,344
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$378.58
+2.15% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.43 / 2.18 / 14.11
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | +$512 | +$586 | +$654 | +$580 |
| $315 (-15%) | +$451 | +$553 | +$695 | +$734 |
| $334 (-10%) | +$348 | +$461 | +$654 | +$1,060 |
| $350 (-6%) โ target | +$224 | +$328 | +$518 | +$1,554 |
| $363 (-2%) | +$108 | +$192 | +$344 | +$792 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | +$38 | +$107 | +$228 | +$429 |
| $378 (+2%) | -$35 | +$17 | +$102 | +$111 |
| $389 (+5%) | -$147 | -$122 | -$96 | -$284 |
| $408 (+10%) | -$335 | -$355 | -$419 | -$754 |
| $426 (+15%) | -$515 | -$573 | -$700 | -$1,041 |
| $445 (+20%) | -$679 | -$764 | -$920 | -$1,204 |
Uses TSM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.