Target Price Playground
TSM
$370.60
๐ข
TSM IV: 46.0% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 62.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $415 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $30.4 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSM hits $415 by Jun 19: the long call returns +$1,460 (48.0%) on $3,040 risked, vs +$4,440 (12.0%) for 100 shares on $37,060. Options give 4.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSM is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSM hits $415 by Jun 19
+$1,460
+48.0% on $3,040 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$3,040
Premium paid
Break-even
$400.40
+8.04% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.18 / -22.34 / 63.3
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | -$2,569 | -$2,810 | -$2,995 | -$3,040 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$2,186 | -$2,539 | -$2,881 | -$3,040 |
| $334 (-10%) | -$1,629 | -$2,086 | -$2,606 | -$3,040 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$881 | -$1,415 | -$2,079 | -$3,040 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$338 | -$901 | -$1,615 | -$3,040 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | +$61 | -$512 | -$1,242 | -$2,980 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$490 | -$86 | -$818 | -$2,239 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$1,186 | +$616 | -$93 | -$1,127 |
| $408 (+10%) | +$2,475 | +$1,941 | +$1,319 | +$726 |
| $415 (+12%) โ target | +$3,026 | +$2,512 | +$1,935 | +$1,460 |
| $426 (+15%) | +$3,903 | +$3,425 | +$2,922 | +$2,579 |
| $445 (+20%) | +$5,443 | +$5,032 | +$4,645 | +$4,432 |
Uses TSM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.