Target Price Playground
TSM
$370.60
๐ข
TSM IV: 46.0% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 62.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.78 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSM hits $325 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,922 (74.6%) on $2,578 risked, vs $-4,560 (-12.3%) for 100 shares on $37,060. Options give 6.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSM is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSM hits $325 by Jun 19
+$1,922
+74.6% on $2,578 risked
Max Profit
+$34,422
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,578
Premium paid
Break-even
$344.22
-7.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.09 / -19.33 / 63.34
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | +$4,940 | +$4,799 | +$4,714 | +$4,774 |
| $315 (-15%) | +$3,471 | +$3,217 | +$2,975 | +$2,921 |
| $325 (-12%) โ target | +$2,749 | +$2,437 | +$2,098 | +$1,922 |
| $334 (-10%) | +$2,175 | +$1,817 | +$1,397 | +$1,068 |
| $352 (-5%) | +$1,070 | +$635 | +$71 | -$785 |
| $363 (-2%) | +$500 | +$37 | -$577 | -$1,897 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | +$159 | -$314 | -$945 | -$2,578 |
| $378 (+2%) | -$153 | -$630 | -$1,262 | -$2,578 |
| $389 (+5%) | -$569 | -$1,040 | -$1,649 | -$2,578 |
| $408 (+10%) | -$1,133 | -$1,568 | -$2,090 | -$2,578 |
| $426 (+15%) | -$1,558 | -$1,936 | -$2,340 | -$2,578 |
| $445 (+20%) | -$1,871 | -$2,182 | -$2,470 | -$2,578 |
Uses TSM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.