Target Price Playground
TSM
$370.60
๐ข
TSM IV: 46.3% โ LOW
(-25.4% vs 30d avg of 62.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $410 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $370.6 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $350 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.5 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSM hits $410 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$2,190 (5.6%) on $38,810 risked, vs +$3,940 (10.6%) for 100 shares on $37,060. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSM is at $410. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSM hits $410 by Jun 19
+$2,190
+5.6% on $38,810 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,810
Put floors you at $350
Break-even
$388.10
+4.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
59%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.01 / -18.19 / 61.08
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | -$3,327 | -$3,558 | -$3,773 | -$3,810 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$2,781 | -$3,116 | -$3,509 | -$3,810 |
| $334 (-10%) | -$2,033 | -$2,445 | -$2,982 | -$3,810 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$1,080 | -$1,529 | -$2,126 | -$3,603 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$414 | -$864 | -$1,453 | -$2,491 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | +$65 | -$377 | -$944 | -$1,750 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$572 | +$143 | -$392 | -$1,009 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$1,380 | +$978 | +$506 | +$103 |
| $410 (+11%) โ target | +$3,028 | +$2,694 | +$2,357 | +$2,190 |
| $426 (+15%) | +$4,403 | +$4,129 | +$3,887 | +$3,809 |
| $445 (+20%) | +$6,057 | +$5,846 | +$5,693 | +$5,662 |
Uses TSM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.