Target Price Playground
TSM
$370.60
๐ข
TSM IV: 46.3% โ LOW
(-25.4% vs 30d avg of 62.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $425 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $30.4 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $370 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.78 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSM hits $425 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-118 (-2.1%) on $5,618 risked, vs +$5,440 (14.7%) for 100 shares on $37,060. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSM is at $425. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSM hits $425 by Jun 19
$-118
-2.1% on $5,618 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$5,618
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$426.18
+15.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.1 / -41.67 / 126.64
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | +$2,371 | +$1,989 | +$1,719 | +$1,734 |
| $315 (-15%) | +$1,284 | +$679 | +$94 | -$119 |
| $334 (-10%) | +$546 | -$269 | -$1,209 | -$1,972 |
| $352 (-5%) | +$189 | -$781 | -$2,008 | -$3,825 |
| $363 (-2%) | +$162 | -$864 | -$2,192 | -$4,937 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | +$220 | -$826 | -$2,186 | -$5,558 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$337 | -$716 | -$2,080 | -$4,817 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$617 | -$424 | -$1,741 | -$3,705 |
| $408 (+10%) | +$1,342 | +$372 | -$770 | -$1,852 |
| $425 (+15%) โ target | +$2,273 | +$1,409 | +$486 | -$118 |
| $445 (+20%) | +$3,572 | +$2,850 | +$2,174 | +$1,854 |
Uses TSM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.