Target Price Playground
TSM
$370.60
๐ข
TSM IV: 46.0% โ LOW
(-25.9% vs 30d avg of 62.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $370.6 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $400 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.4 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSM hits $400 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,780 (13.6%) on $35,220 risked, vs +$2,940 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $37,060. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSM is at $400. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSM hits $400 by Jun 19
+$4,780
+13.6% on $35,220 risked
Max Profit
+$4,780
If the stock โฅ $400 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$35,220
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$352.20
-4.96% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
69%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
60.08 / 21.45 / -58.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSM Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $296 (-20%) | -$5,786 | -$5,650 | -$5,579 | -$5,572 |
| $315 (-15%) | -$4,143 | -$3,914 | -$3,751 | -$3,719 |
| $334 (-10%) | -$2,624 | -$2,286 | -$1,980 | -$1,866 |
| $352 (-5%) | -$1,258 | -$809 | -$328 | -$13 |
| $363 (-2%) | -$520 | -$12 | +$573 | +$1,099 |
| $371 (0%) โ spot | -$63 | +$477 | +$1,125 | +$1,840 |
| $378 (+2%) | +$364 | +$933 | +$1,634 | +$2,581 |
| $389 (+5%) | +$951 | +$1,552 | +$2,312 | +$3,693 |
| $400 (+8%) โ target | +$1,464 | +$2,082 | +$2,871 | +$4,780 |
| $408 (+10%) | +$1,789 | +$2,412 | +$3,204 | +$4,780 |
| $426 (+15%) | +$2,463 | +$3,072 | +$3,818 | +$4,780 |
| $445 (+20%) | +$2,992 | +$3,559 | +$4,207 | +$4,780 |
Uses TSM's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.