Target Price Playground
TXN
$214.73
๐ข
TXN IV: 37.9% โ LOW
(-40.8% vs 30d avg of 64.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $215 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.86 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $200 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.9 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $190 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,004 (202.6%) on $496 risked, vs $-2,473 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $21,473. Options give 17.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $190 by Jun 19
+$1,004
+202.6% on $496 risked
Max Profit
+$1,004
If the stock โค $200 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$496
Net debit
Break-even
$210.04
-2.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-15.37 / 0.84 / 6.18
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172 (-20%) | +$821 | +$886 | +$965 | +$1,004 |
| $183 (-15%) | +$687 | +$756 | +$868 | +$1,004 |
| $190 (-12%) โ target | +$571 | +$629 | +$738 | +$1,004 |
| $193 (-10%) | +$516 | +$566 | +$664 | +$1,004 |
| $204 (-5%) | +$326 | +$339 | +$366 | +$605 |
| $210 (-2%) | +$212 | +$199 | +$173 | -$40 |
| $215 (0%) โ spot | +$138 | +$110 | +$51 | -$469 |
| $219 (+2%) | +$67 | +$25 | -$61 | -$496 |
| $225 (+5%) | -$32 | -$90 | -$202 | -$496 |
| $236 (+10%) | -$172 | -$244 | -$361 | -$496 |
| $247 (+15%) | -$280 | -$350 | -$443 | -$496 |
| $258 (+20%) | -$357 | -$417 | -$478 | -$496 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.