Target Price Playground
TXN
$214.73
๐ข
TXN IV: 37.9% โ LOW
(-40.8% vs 30d avg of 64.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $240 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $215 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.36 ยท ฮ 0.55
SHORT CALL ยท $230 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.55 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $240 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$819 (120.4%) on $681 risked, vs +$2,527 (11.8%) for 100 shares on $21,473. Options give 10.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $240. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $240 by Jun 19
+$819
+120.4% on $681 risked
Max Profit
+$819
If the stock โฅ $230 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$681
Net debit
Break-even
$221.81
+3.3% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
17.99 / -1.71 / 3.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172 (-20%) | -$605 | -$645 | -$676 | -$681 |
| $183 (-15%) | -$526 | -$585 | -$654 | -$681 |
| $193 (-10%) | -$409 | -$475 | -$579 | -$681 |
| $204 (-5%) | -$257 | -$310 | -$415 | -$681 |
| $210 (-2%) | -$154 | -$190 | -$270 | -$681 |
| $215 (0%) โ spot | -$83 | -$105 | -$158 | -$681 |
| $219 (+2%) | -$11 | -$18 | -$40 | -$279 |
| $225 (+5%) | +$96 | +$112 | +$141 | +$366 |
| $236 (+10%) | +$264 | +$314 | +$411 | +$819 |
| $240 (+12%) โ target | +$318 | +$377 | +$489 | +$819 |
| $247 (+15%) | +$410 | +$481 | +$605 | +$819 |
| $258 (+20%) | +$528 | +$605 | +$719 | +$819 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.