Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $225 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$790 (4.1%) on $-790 credit (max loss $19,210), vs +$1,027 (4.8%) for 100 shares on $21,473. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $225. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172 (-20%) | -$2,161 | -$2,080 | -$2,016 | -$2,032 |
| $183 (-15%) | -$1,372 | -$1,229 | -$1,065 | -$958 |
| $193 (-10%) | -$725 | -$537 | -$291 | +$116 |
| $204 (-5%) | -$226 | -$24 | +$245 | +$790 |
| $210 (-2%) | +$8 | +$204 | +$454 | +$790 |
| $215 (0%) โ spot | +$138 | +$325 | +$554 | +$790 |
| $219 (+2%) | +$250 | +$425 | +$628 | +$790 |
| $225 (+5%) โ target | +$379 | +$534 | +$698 | +$790 |
| $236 (+10%) | +$552 | +$666 | +$762 | +$790 |
| $247 (+15%) | +$653 | +$731 | +$782 | +$790 |
| $258 (+20%) | +$714 | +$764 | +$788 | +$790 |