Target Price Playground
TXN
$214.73
๐ข
TXN IV: 37.9% โ LOW
(-40.8% vs 30d avg of 64.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $214.73 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $230 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.55 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $230 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$2,282 (11.0%) on $20,718 risked, vs +$1,527 (7.1%) for 100 shares on $21,473. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $230 by Jun 19
+$2,282
+11.0% on $20,718 risked
Max Profit
+$2,282
If the stock โฅ $230 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$20,718
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$207.18
-3.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
63.07 / 9.68 / -33.29
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172 (-20%) | -$3,587 | -$3,553 | -$3,541 | -$3,540 |
| $183 (-15%) | -$2,585 | -$2,512 | -$2,471 | -$2,466 |
| $193 (-10%) | -$1,650 | -$1,520 | -$1,418 | -$1,392 |
| $204 (-5%) | -$809 | -$615 | -$420 | -$319 |
| $210 (-2%) | -$358 | -$128 | +$128 | +$326 |
| $215 (0%) โ spot | -$82 | +$168 | +$462 | +$755 |
| $219 (+2%) | +$172 | +$440 | +$766 | +$1,184 |
| $225 (+5%) | +$516 | +$802 | +$1,162 | +$1,829 |
| $230 (+7%) โ target | +$730 | +$1,023 | +$1,394 | +$2,282 |
| $236 (+10%) | +$987 | +$1,281 | +$1,650 | +$2,282 |
| $247 (+15%) | +$1,343 | +$1,620 | +$1,946 | +$2,282 |
| $258 (+20%) | +$1,599 | +$1,844 | +$2,101 | +$2,282 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.