Target Price Playground
TXN
$214.73
๐ข
TXN IV: 37.9% โ LOW
(-40.8% vs 30d avg of 64.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $205 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $215 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.06 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $205 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.34 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $205 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$730 (108.7%) on $672 risked, vs $-973 (-4.5%) for 100 shares on $21,473. Options give 24.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $205 by Jun 19
+$730
+108.7% on $672 risked
Max Profit
+$726
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$668
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$219.04
+2.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.4 / 1.22 / 9.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172 (-20%) | +$263 | +$286 | +$297 | +$265 |
| $183 (-15%) | +$238 | +$281 | +$329 | +$306 |
| $193 (-10%) | +$185 | +$241 | +$328 | +$428 |
| $205 (-5%) โ target | +$95 | +$146 | +$238 | +$730 |
| $210 (-2%) | +$43 | +$86 | +$163 | +$405 |
| $215 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$33 | +$92 | +$186 |
| $219 (+2%) | -$46 | -$22 | +$14 | +$0 |
| $225 (+5%) | -$115 | -$109 | -$108 | -$221 |
| $236 (+10%) | -$230 | -$249 | -$296 | -$458 |
| $247 (+15%) | -$335 | -$372 | -$443 | -$581 |
| $258 (+20%) | -$424 | -$470 | -$543 | -$637 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.