Target Price Playground
TXN
$214.73
๐ข
TXN IV: 37.9% โ LOW
(-40.8% vs 30d avg of 64.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $215 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.86 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $190 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$1,214 (94.4%) on $1,286 risked, vs $-2,473 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $21,473. Options give 8.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $190 by Jun 19
+$1,214
+94.4% on $1,286 risked
Max Profit
+$20,214
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,286
Premium paid
Break-even
$202.14
-5.86% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
47%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.08 / -8.76 / 36.42
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172 (-20%) | +$2,982 | +$2,966 | +$2,980 | +$3,036 |
| $183 (-15%) | +$2,059 | +$1,984 | +$1,933 | +$1,962 |
| $190 (-12%) โ target | +$1,477 | +$1,357 | +$1,240 | +$1,214 |
| $193 (-10%) | +$1,241 | +$1,103 | +$955 | +$888 |
| $204 (-5%) | +$552 | +$363 | +$121 | -$185 |
| $210 (-2%) | +$204 | -$5 | -$282 | -$830 |
| $215 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$215 | -$504 | -$1,259 |
| $219 (+2%) | -$183 | -$400 | -$689 | -$1,286 |
| $225 (+5%) | -$420 | -$632 | -$904 | -$1,286 |
| $236 (+10%) | -$723 | -$909 | -$1,123 | -$1,286 |
| $247 (+15%) | -$933 | -$1,081 | -$1,225 | -$1,286 |
| $258 (+20%) | -$1,071 | -$1,181 | -$1,266 | -$1,286 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.