Target Price Playground
TXN
$214.73
๐ข
TXN IV: 37.9% โ LOW
(-40.8% vs 30d avg of 64.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $235 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $214.73 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $205 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.34 ยท ฮ -0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $235 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,193 (5.3%) on $22,307 risked, vs +$2,027 (9.4%) for 100 shares on $21,473. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $235. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $235 by Jun 19
+$1,193
+5.3% on $22,307 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$1,807
Put floors you at $205
Break-even
$223.07
+3.88% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.36 / -8.33 / 33.57
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172 (-20%) | -$1,754 | -$1,812 | -$1,844 | -$1,807 |
| $183 (-15%) | -$1,520 | -$1,642 | -$1,767 | -$1,807 |
| $193 (-10%) | -$1,156 | -$1,331 | -$1,553 | -$1,807 |
| $204 (-5%) | -$648 | -$852 | -$1,126 | -$1,807 |
| $210 (-2%) | -$275 | -$481 | -$754 | -$1,263 |
| $215 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$202 | -$463 | -$834 |
| $219 (+2%) | +$294 | +$100 | -$141 | -$405 |
| $225 (+5%) | +$770 | +$594 | +$392 | +$240 |
| $235 (+9%) โ target | +$1,537 | +$1,394 | +$1,254 | +$1,193 |
| $247 (+15%) | +$2,579 | +$2,479 | +$2,404 | +$2,387 |
| $258 (+20%) | +$3,571 | +$3,504 | +$3,466 | +$3,461 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.