Target Price Playground
TXN
$214.73
๐ข
TXN IV: 37.9% โ LOW
(-40.8% vs 30d avg of 64.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $245 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $215 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.36 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $215 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.86 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $245 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns +$279 (10.2%) on $2,721 risked, vs +$3,027 (14.1%) for 100 shares on $21,473. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $245. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $245 by Jun 19
+$279
+10.2% on $2,721 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$2,721
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$187.79
-12.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.84 / -20.15 / 72.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $172 (-20%) | +$1,669 | +$1,578 | +$1,550 | +$1,600 |
| $183 (-15%) | +$897 | +$690 | +$529 | +$526 |
| $193 (-10%) | +$335 | +$1 | -$354 | -$548 |
| $204 (-5%) | +$30 | -$407 | -$948 | -$1,621 |
| $210 (-2%) | -$21 | -$496 | -$1,108 | -$2,266 |
| $215 (0%) โ spot | -$1 | -$489 | -$1,123 | -$2,695 |
| $219 (+2%) | +$63 | -$430 | -$1,066 | -$2,320 |
| $225 (+5%) | +$234 | -$248 | -$851 | -$1,675 |
| $236 (+10%) | +$700 | +$270 | -$215 | -$602 |
| $245 (+14%) โ target | +$1,225 | +$856 | +$486 | +$278 |
| $258 (+20%) | +$2,152 | +$1,876 | +$1,647 | +$1,546 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.