Target Price Playground
TYL
$317.30
๐ข
TYL IV: 46.9% โ LOW
(-53.9% vs 30d avg of 101.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $280 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $315 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $24.36 ยท ฮ -0.43
SHORT PUT ยท $290 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.4 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TYL hits $280 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,104 (79.1%) on $1,396 risked, vs $-3,730 (-11.8%) for 100 shares on $31,730. Options give 6.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TYL is at $280. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TYL hits $280 by Jun 19
+$1,104
+79.1% on $1,396 risked
Max Profit
+$1,104
If the stock โค $290 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,396
Net debit
Break-even
$301.04
-5.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-13.15 / 0.46 / 9.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TYL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $254 (-20%) | +$616 | +$724 | +$901 | +$1,104 |
| $270 (-15%) | +$404 | +$492 | +$664 | +$1,104 |
| $280 (-12%) โ target | +$253 | +$316 | +$450 | +$1,104 |
| $286 (-10%) | +$169 | +$215 | +$319 | +$1,104 |
| $301 (-5%) | -$75 | -$80 | -$85 | -$40 |
| $311 (-2%) | -$218 | -$255 | -$327 | -$991 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | -$310 | -$367 | -$480 | -$1,396 |
| $324 (+2%) | -$400 | -$474 | -$622 | -$1,396 |
| $333 (+5%) | -$527 | -$624 | -$810 | -$1,396 |
| $349 (+10%) | -$717 | -$838 | -$1,051 | -$1,396 |
| $365 (+15%) | -$876 | -$1,007 | -$1,208 | -$1,396 |
| $381 (+20%) | -$1,006 | -$1,134 | -$1,301 | -$1,396 |
Uses TYL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.