Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TYL hits $335 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$1,040 (3.7%) on $-1,040 credit (max loss $27,960), vs +$1,770 (5.6%) for 100 shares on $31,730. Options give 0.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TYL is at $335. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TYL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $254 (-20%) | -$3,329 | -$3,056 | -$2,753 | -$2,576 |
| $270 (-15%) | -$2,328 | -$1,978 | -$1,537 | -$990 |
| $286 (-10%) | -$1,497 | -$1,102 | -$579 | +$597 |
| $301 (-5%) | -$829 | -$426 | +$102 | +$1,040 |
| $311 (-2%) | -$502 | -$109 | +$389 | +$1,040 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | -$310 | +$70 | +$538 | +$1,040 |
| $324 (+2%) | -$139 | +$226 | +$658 | +$1,040 |
| $335 (+6%) โ target | +$122 | +$452 | +$812 | +$1,040 |
| $349 (+10%) | +$373 | +$655 | +$925 | +$1,040 |
| $365 (+15%) | +$583 | +$807 | +$991 | +$1,040 |
| $381 (+20%) | +$731 | +$903 | +$1,020 | +$1,040 |