Target Price Playground
TYL
$317.30
๐ข
TYL IV: 46.9% โ LOW
(-53.9% vs 30d avg of 101.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $345 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $317.3 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $345 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.29 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TYL hits $345 by Jun 19: the covered call returns +$4,499 (15.0%) on $30,001 risked, vs +$2,770 (8.7%) for 100 shares on $31,730. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TYL is at $345. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TYL hits $345 by Jun 19
+$4,499
+15.0% on $30,001 risked
Max Profit
+$4,499
If the stock โฅ $345 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$30,001
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$300.01
-5.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
59.76 / 20.9 / -52.6
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TYL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $254 (-20%) | -$4,846 | -$4,706 | -$4,626 | -$4,617 |
| $270 (-15%) | -$3,460 | -$3,235 | -$3,068 | -$3,031 |
| $286 (-10%) | -$2,177 | -$1,857 | -$1,561 | -$1,444 |
| $301 (-5%) | -$1,019 | -$604 | -$157 | +$143 |
| $311 (-2%) | -$391 | +$74 | +$611 | +$1,094 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$494 | +$1,086 | +$1,729 |
| $324 (+2%) | +$368 | +$887 | +$1,526 | +$2,364 |
| $333 (+5%) | +$877 | +$1,425 | +$2,117 | +$3,316 |
| $345 (+9%) โ target | +$1,438 | +$2,007 | +$2,734 | +$4,499 |
| $349 (+10%) | +$1,612 | +$2,184 | +$2,914 | +$4,499 |
| $365 (+15%) | +$2,215 | +$2,782 | +$3,487 | +$4,499 |
| $381 (+20%) | +$2,700 | +$3,238 | +$3,870 | +$4,499 |
Uses TYL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.