Target Price Playground
TYL
$317.30
๐ข
TYL IV: 46.9% โ LOW
(-53.9% vs 30d avg of 101.7%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $350 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $317.3 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $300 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $13.61 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TYL hits $350 by Jun 19: the protective put returns +$1,909 (5.8%) on $33,091 risked, vs +$3,270 (10.3%) for 100 shares on $31,730. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TYL is at $350. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TYL hits $350 by Jun 19
+$1,909
+5.8% on $33,091 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,091
Put floors you at $300
Break-even
$330.91
+4.29% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.15 / -18.29 / 51.41
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TYL Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $254 (-20%) | -$2,565 | -$2,796 | -$3,024 | -$3,091 |
| $270 (-15%) | -$2,072 | -$2,392 | -$2,772 | -$3,091 |
| $286 (-10%) | -$1,415 | -$1,800 | -$2,299 | -$3,091 |
| $301 (-5%) | -$595 | -$1,010 | -$1,563 | -$2,947 |
| $311 (-2%) | -$29 | -$446 | -$995 | -$1,996 |
| $317 (0%) โ spot | +$378 | -$34 | -$566 | -$1,361 |
| $324 (+2%) | +$807 | +$404 | -$103 | -$726 |
| $333 (+5%) | +$1,488 | +$1,106 | +$650 | +$226 |
| $350 (+10%) โ target | +$2,790 | +$2,460 | +$2,110 | +$1,909 |
| $365 (+15%) | +$4,030 | +$3,753 | +$3,496 | +$3,398 |
| $381 (+20%) | +$5,423 | +$5,202 | +$5,028 | +$4,985 |
Uses TYL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.