Target Price Playground
UMC
$9.74
๐ก
UMC IV: 67.5% โ NORMAL
(+6.1% vs 30d avg of 63.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.1 ยท ฮ 0.6
SHORT CALL ยท $11 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.68 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If UMC hits $11 by Jun 19: the bull call spread returns +$58 (138.2%) on $42 risked, vs +$126 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $974. Options give 10.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if UMC is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if UMC hits $11 by Jun 19
+$58
+138.2% on $42 risked
Max Profit
+$58
If the stock โฅ $10 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$42
Net debit
Break-even
$9.92
+1.85% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
16.15 / 0.0 / -0.04
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| UMC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$29 | -$32 | -$38 | -$42 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$22 | -$26 | -$33 | -$42 |
| $9 (-10%) | -$15 | -$18 | -$25 | -$42 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$8 | -$10 | -$14 | -$42 |
| $10 (-2%) | -$3 | -$4 | -$6 | -$37 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$0 | -$1 | -$18 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$3 | +$4 | +$4 | +$1 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$8 | +$9 | +$12 | +$31 |
| $11 (+10%) | +$15 | +$18 | +$24 | +$58 |
| $11 (+13%) โ target | +$19 | +$23 | +$30 | +$58 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$22 | +$26 | +$34 | +$58 |
| $12 (+20%) | +$28 | +$33 | +$42 | +$58 |
Uses UMC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.