Target Price Playground
UMC
$9.74
๐ก
UMC IV: 67.5% โ NORMAL
(+6.1% vs 30d avg of 63.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $10 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
SHORT PUT ยท $9 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.56 ยท ฮ -0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If UMC hits $10 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$56 (6.6%) on $-56 credit (max loss $844), vs +$26 (2.7%) for 100 shares on $974. Options give 2.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if UMC is at $10. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if UMC hits $10 by Jun 19
+$56
+6.6% on $844 max loss
Max Profit
+$56
If the stock โฅ $9 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$844
If stock โ $0 after assignment
Break-even
$8.44
-13.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
91%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
31.61 / 0.59 / -1.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| UMC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$95 | -$84 | -$73 | -$65 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$64 | -$52 | -$36 | -$16 |
| $9 (-10%) | -$38 | -$24 | -$6 | +$33 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$17 | -$3 | +$16 | +$56 |
| $10 (-2%) | -$6 | +$8 | +$27 | +$56 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$14 | +$32 | +$56 |
| $10 (+3%) โ target | +$8 | +$21 | +$38 | +$56 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$14 | +$27 | +$42 | +$56 |
| $11 (+10%) | +$24 | +$36 | +$49 | +$56 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$33 | +$43 | +$52 | +$56 |
| $12 (+20%) | +$39 | +$47 | +$54 | +$56 |
Uses UMC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.