Target Price Playground
UMC
$9.74
๐ก
UMC IV: 67.5% โ NORMAL
(+6.1% vs 30d avg of 63.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $9 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.78 ยท ฮ -0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If UMC hits $9 by Jun 19: the long put returns +$22 (27.5%) on $78 risked, vs $-124 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $974. Options give 2.2ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if UMC is at $9. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if UMC hits $9 by Jun 19
+$22
+27.5% on $78 risked
Max Profit
+$872
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$78
Premium paid
Break-even
$8.72
-10.52% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-39.82 / -0.63 / 1.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| UMC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | +$111 | +$103 | +$95 | +$93 |
| $8 (-15%) | +$77 | +$66 | +$53 | +$44 |
| $9 (-13%) โ target | +$63 | +$51 | +$36 | +$22 |
| $9 (-10%) | +$47 | +$34 | +$17 | -$5 |
| $9 (-5%) | +$22 | +$7 | -$13 | -$53 |
| $10 (-2%) | +$8 | -$7 | -$27 | -$78 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$15 | -$35 | -$78 |
| $10 (+2%) | -$7 | -$22 | -$42 | -$78 |
| $10 (+5%) | -$17 | -$32 | -$52 | -$78 |
| $11 (+10%) | -$31 | -$45 | -$62 | -$78 |
| $11 (+15%) | -$42 | -$55 | -$69 | -$78 |
| $12 (+20%) | -$51 | -$62 | -$73 | -$78 |
Uses UMC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.