Target Price Playground
UMC
$9.74
๐ก
UMC IV: 67.5% โ NORMAL
(+6.1% vs 30d avg of 63.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $9.74 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.78 ยท ฮ -0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If UMC hits $11 by Jun 19: the protective put returns $-2 (-0.2%) on $1,052 risked, vs +$76 (7.8%) for 100 shares on $974.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if UMC is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if UMC hits $11 by Jun 19
$-2
-0.2% on $1,052 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$102
Put floors you at $10
Break-even
$10.52
+8.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
75%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
60.18 / -0.63 / 1.61
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| UMC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | -$84 | -$92 | -$100 | -$102 |
| $8 (-15%) | -$69 | -$80 | -$93 | -$102 |
| $9 (-10%) | -$50 | -$63 | -$80 | -$102 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$27 | -$42 | -$62 | -$102 |
| $10 (-2%) | -$11 | -$26 | -$46 | -$97 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$15 | -$35 | -$78 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$12 | -$3 | -$23 | -$59 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$32 | +$17 | -$3 | -$29 |
| $11 (+8%) โ target | +$51 | +$36 | +$18 | -$2 |
| $11 (+10%) | +$66 | +$52 | +$35 | +$19 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$104 | +$91 | +$77 | +$68 |
| $12 (+20%) | +$144 | +$133 | +$122 | +$117 |
Uses UMC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.