Target Price Playground
UMC
$9.74
๐ก
UMC IV: 67.5% โ NORMAL
(+6.1% vs 30d avg of 63.6%)
IV is near its 30-day average โ no strong edge either way.
Forward Projection
If price hits $11 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $1.1 ยท ฮ 0.6
LONG PUT ยท $10 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $0.78 ยท ฮ -0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If UMC hits $11 by Jun 19: the long straddle returns $-39 (-20.5%) on $189 risked, vs +$126 (12.9%) for 100 shares on $974. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if UMC is at $11. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if UMC hits $11 by Jun 19
$-39
-20.5% on $189 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$189
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$11.39
+16.9% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
20.36 / -1.38 / 3.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| UMC Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8 (-20%) | +$28 | +$9 | -$10 | -$17 |
| $8 (-15%) | +$8 | -$17 | -$45 | -$66 |
| $9 (-10%) | -$3 | -$32 | -$69 | -$115 |
| $9 (-5%) | -$5 | -$38 | -$79 | -$163 |
| $10 (-2%) | -$3 | -$36 | -$79 | -$183 |
| $10 (0%) โ spot | +$1 | -$33 | -$76 | -$164 |
| $10 (+2%) | +$5 | -$28 | -$71 | -$145 |
| $10 (+5%) | +$14 | -$18 | -$59 | -$115 |
| $11 (+10%) | +$34 | +$4 | -$33 | -$67 |
| $11 (+13%) โ target | +$49 | +$20 | -$13 | -$38 |
| $11 (+15%) | +$61 | +$33 | +$2 | -$18 |
| $12 (+20%) | +$92 | +$67 | +$43 | +$31 |
Uses UMC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.