Target Price Playground
UNH
$304.33
๐ข
UNH IV: 35.4% โ LOW
(-39.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $270 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $305 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.45 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $280 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.2 ยท ฮ -0.25
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If UNH hits $270 by Jun 19: the bear put spread returns +$1,475 (143.9%) on $1,025 risked, vs $-3,433 (-11.3%) for 100 shares on $30,433. Options give 12.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if UNH is at $270. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if UNH hits $270 by Jun 19
+$1,475
+143.9% on $1,025 risked
Max Profit
+$1,475
If the stock โค $280 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,025
Net debit
Break-even
$294.75
-3.15% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-20.61 / -1.67 / 9.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| UNH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $243 (-20%) | +$1,175 | +$1,282 | +$1,411 | +$1,475 |
| $259 (-15%) | +$942 | +$1,057 | +$1,243 | +$1,475 |
| $270 (-11%) โ target | +$724 | +$817 | +$993 | +$1,475 |
| $274 (-10%) | +$642 | +$723 | +$880 | +$1,475 |
| $289 (-5%) | +$309 | +$324 | +$355 | +$564 |
| $298 (-2%) | +$109 | +$81 | +$22 | -$349 |
| $304 (0%) โ spot | -$19 | -$73 | -$185 | -$958 |
| $310 (+2%) | -$141 | -$217 | -$370 | -$1,025 |
| $320 (+5%) | -$308 | -$410 | -$598 | -$1,025 |
| $335 (+10%) | -$541 | -$659 | -$843 | -$1,025 |
| $350 (+15%) | -$714 | -$824 | -$959 | -$1,025 |
| $365 (+20%) | -$834 | -$922 | -$1,004 | -$1,025 |
Uses UNH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.