Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If UNH hits $320 by Jun 19: the cash-secured put returns +$720 (2.6%) on $-720 credit (max loss $27,280), vs +$1,567 (5.1%) for 100 shares on $30,433. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if UNH is at $320. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| UNH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $243 (-20%) | -$3,124 | -$3,010 | -$2,917 | -$2,934 |
| $259 (-15%) | -$2,027 | -$1,827 | -$1,591 | -$1,412 |
| $274 (-10%) | -$1,145 | -$889 | -$549 | +$110 |
| $289 (-5%) | -$484 | -$218 | +$131 | +$720 |
| $298 (-2%) | -$184 | +$67 | +$379 | +$720 |
| $304 (0%) โ spot | -$19 | +$216 | +$491 | +$720 |
| $310 (+2%) | +$120 | +$335 | +$571 | +$720 |
| $320 (+5%) โ target | +$294 | +$474 | +$648 | +$720 |
| $335 (+10%) | +$477 | +$604 | +$699 | +$720 |
| $350 (+15%) | +$589 | +$670 | +$715 | +$720 |
| $365 (+20%) | +$652 | +$700 | +$719 | +$720 |