Target Price Playground
UNH
$304.33
๐ข
UNH IV: 35.4% โ LOW
(-39.0% vs 30d avg of 58.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $290 by Jun 19
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
67d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $305 ยท Jul '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $20.4 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $290 ยท Jun '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.1 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If UNH hits $290 by Jun 19: the diagonal put spread returns +$960 (93.2%) on $1,030 risked, vs $-1,433 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $30,433. Options give 19.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Jun 19, 2026 (67 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if UNH is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if UNH hits $290 by Jun 19
+$960
+93.2% on $1,030 risked
Max Profit
+$918
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$1,026
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$307.45
+1.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
76%
IV-implied, 67d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-11.58 / 1.93 / 11.85
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| UNH Price | Today | May 5 | May 27 | Jun 19 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $243 (-20%) | +$361 | +$395 | +$411 | +$376 |
| $259 (-15%) | +$318 | +$380 | +$448 | +$423 |
| $274 (-10%) | +$231 | +$310 | +$433 | +$575 |
| $290 (-5%) โ target | +$90 | +$161 | +$289 | +$960 |
| $298 (-2%) | +$2 | +$59 | +$161 | +$456 |
| $304 (0%) โ spot | -$67 | -$24 | +$48 | +$141 |
| $310 (+2%) | -$139 | -$112 | -$73 | -$124 |
| $320 (+5%) | -$248 | -$246 | -$258 | -$435 |
| $335 (+10%) | -$423 | -$458 | -$536 | -$761 |
| $350 (+15%) | -$580 | -$638 | -$742 | -$922 |
| $365 (+20%) | -$709 | -$776 | -$875 | -$991 |
Uses UNH's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.